.png)
Shot selection can be a never-ending discussion because it spans both sides of the ball: the shots you choose to take versus the shots you try to deny the opposing team. It covers both your tactical team environment and the individual decisions players make on the floor.
Whether a player is choosing to attack space that isn’t there or shooting an off-balance jumper from an inefficient spot on the floor, shot selection dictates wins and losses. To simplify this concept, we will break shot selection down into three critical analytical categories.
1. Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
An eFG% metric is simply your standard field goal percentage, but with a critical caveat: it adds more value to a 3-point shot because it is worth more than a 2-point shot. If a player only shoots 2s, their eFG% is identical to their regular FG%. The moment they incorporate 3s, it creates massive variance.
Originally coined by Dean Oliver as one of the "Four Factors" of basketball analytics, the difference between your eFG% and your opponent’s is a primary indicator of success.
"Look no further than Game 7 of the Pistons vs. Cavs series last night. Cleveland hit 11 3-pointers, finishing with a team eFG% of 57.1%. Detroit struggled at 42.4%. That 14.7% efficiency gap was the game."
2. Points Per Shot (PPS)
Points Per Shot is the logical next step in evaluating efficiency. It provides a strict accounting of exactly how many points a player scores per field goal attempt. Crucially, PPS highlights the massive value of getting to the free-throw line, as you accumulate points without being "charged" a standard shot attempt.
Anatomy of a 0.93 PPS Line:
Imagine a player who scores 14 points on 5-for-15 shooting performance:
- 15 Field Goal Attempts (FGA)
- 4 Two-Point Field Goal Makes (2FGM)
- 1-for-3 from the 3-point line (3PM)
- 3-for-6 from the Foul Line (FTM)
Points Per Shot = 14 / 15 = 0.93 PPS • eFG% = 36.67%
For elite context, the newly named 2x MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the NBA in Points Per Shot this season for high-volume players at a staggering 1.6 PPS paired with an eFG% of 60.2%. Those are wildly efficient shooting numbers.
3. Expected Point Value (EPV)
Expected Point Value lives in the same statistical ballpark as the other two metrics, but it serves as an excellent look-ahead and review tool. EPV tracks how you shot the ball relative to how the data says you "should" have shot it on average.
To calculate EPV, you simply multiply your shooting percentage from a specific area by the point value of that shot. At Top Tier Basketball, we break the halfcourt down into distinct target regions to evaluate individual and team performance:
| Court Region (Example Team) | Shooting % | Shot Value | Expected Point Value (EPV) |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Rim (Within 8ft) | 55% | 2 Pts | 1.10 |
| Midrange | 35% | 2 Pts | 0.70 |
| 3-Point Line | 35% | 3 Pts | 1.05 |
These numbers clearly dictate which looks your offense should hunt, and which looks your defense must force. Imagine a defensive closeout where you successfully chase a 45% shooter off the 3-point line (where they hold an elite 1.35 EPV on catch-and-shoot looks) and force them into a contested, off-the-dribble midrange pull-up operating at a meager 0.70 EPV. That is analytical defensive mastery.
From Analytics to the Practice Floor
The true value of these metrics goes beyond analyzing game film—it informs your entire program design. Use EPV data to construct small-sided games (SSGs) in practice that reward efficient behaviors.
For example: alter your scrimmage rules so that an open, catch-and-shoot 3-pointer is worth 6 points, while a contested, one-footed fadeaway is only worth 1 point. Gamifying your data points in practice rewires decision-making instantly, making execution automatic when the bright Friday night lights turn on.