This week, I want to dive directly into discussing Points Per Possession (PPP) and the value of Possession Tracking.
Very simply put, points per possession is exactly what it sounds like: total points scored divided over your total number of possessions. For context, in our league, teams typically average around 80 possessions per game. If a squad scores 80 points, they operate at a clean 1.0 PPP. If scoring efficiency trends toward the lower end, resulting in 65 points, that baseline efficiency drops, as shown by:
The beauty of possession-based tracking metrics is that they are naturally two-sided. Total possessions will match up for both teams in a game, so what we are really talking about is the game's actual Pace.
How to Calculate Team Possessions
There are a few different ways to deal with possessions, you can track each and every possession during the game for a perfect representation, or you can use a formula to integrate more into your broader analytics.
The most typical calculation for pace is:
*Note on the 0.44 multiplier: This is an analytical constant used to account for the reality that not all free throw trips come in traditional sets of two. It seamlessly factors in "and-1" sequences, three-shot fouls, and technical free throws without distorting data columns.
Avoiding Misleading Pace Data
The formula is not 100% perfect, but its within an acceptable range when you compare it to hand tracking each possession.
- High Turnover Games: high turnover games, when possessions are shortened by quick turnovers from teams it can lead to a pace that seems super high but it’s just that possessions are short because of turnovers
- High Offensive Rebounding (ORB) Numbers: High ORB numbers can lead to the pace seeming slow because it extends possessions. In the big picture when you start tracking Turnover and ORB% as part of the Four Factors you get a good total picture of your team and where efficiencies and inefficiencies lie.
The next part of this discussion is about the phases of the game. Now that you know the basics of tracking points per possession, we need to figure out what kind of possession we have. This can be broken down a million different ways, and should be to the coach’s preference, but on a very basic level I want to talk about the 4 phases of: 1- Half Court Defense 2- Transition Offense 3- Half Court Offense 4- Transition Defense.
Breaking Down the 4 Core Phases of Play
In tracking both your offense and your defense with each phase of the game you can start to narrow down what your team needs to work on both offensively and defensively. The Four Factors really do fit nicely into this as well and start painting a picture about your team, the Four Factors being Dean Oliver’s collection of: ORB%, TO%, eFG%, and Free Throw Factor (FTA/FGA).
Half-Court Offense
Transition Offense
Half-Court Defense
Transition Defense
A fifth section you could get into as an aside in tracking your set piece actions would be “Special Situations” so Sideline Out of Bounds (SLOBS), and Baseline Out of Bounds (BLOBS).
The Hidden Interconnections of Efficiency:
By measuring individual phase tracking, the data will quickly expose exact developmental dependencies across your game model:
- If your Half-Court Defense is weak, your Transition Offense will naturally suffer. When you are constantly taking the ball out of the net after an opponent scores, it is tough to play in transition.
- If opponents hold a dominant ORB% against your frontcourt, your Transition Offense is effectively grounded because you aren't clean-catching defensive rebounds, and getting up-court quickly.
- A very low defensive TO% from a conservative, risk-averse system means you aren't creating enough live-ball turnovers to fuel easy transition scoring.
- Conversely, your Transition Defense efficiency is highly dependent on your own offensive group's execution quality—specifically your eFG% and the baseline **Expected Point Value (EPV)** of the shots you end up taking.
Other Options to Track
Chunk up your actions into specific areas you want to develop based on your game-model:
A lot of these stats become confirming what the coaches eye is seeing, however giving numbers allows a really tangible way to both track, but also explain what you are doing in practice, what needs improvement, and what it looks like when things go well and go poorly. It helps to start to paint a picture of what happened in the game, and over time you hope that you can get that data as the game is going to make your adjustments. I believe it starts the process of having your team understand what is meaningful to the coach and what they are looking for from them and the team as a whole. These numbers can help to increase alignment and objectives of the team.